Njengoko uMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo usondela, iingcali zorhwebo lwangaphandle sele ziza kungena kwifestile ebalulekileyo yonyaka —Isiqalo esihle sekota yokuqala ka-2026Ukuqaliswa kwakhona komsebenzi emva kweeholide, ukuhlaziywa kwakhona kwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo phesheya kweelwandle, ukuqaliswa kwemveliso emitsha entwasahlobo yorhwebo lwe-e-commerce, kunye namaza okuthengwa agxile kwiimarike ezisakhulayo, kudityaniswe nohlengahlengiso lwekhonkco lobonelelo lwehlabathi, imfuno ekhulayo ye-AI kunye namandla amatsha, kunye notshintsho lwesakhiwo kwiindlela zokuthumela kunye namaxabiso empahla —Ukukhetha iindidi zemveliso ezifanelekileyo, ukubeka ixesha elifanelekileyo lokuhamba kwakho, kunye nokugcina indawo yemithwalo kwangaphambili kuya kubeka ngokuthe ngqo ithoni yokusebenza konyaka..
I. Imeko yoRhwebo lwaNgaphandle lwe-2026 Q1: Inkqubela phambili ezinzileyo ngokuphuculwa kwesakhiwo
•Ukukhula Okupheleleyo: UGoldman Sachs uqikelela ukuba ukukhula okuqhelekileyo kweTshayina ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe (okubizwa ngokuba yi-USD) kuya kufikelela kwi-5.6% ngo-2026, kunye nomthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ogcina ukukhula okungaphezulu kwe-5%, okubonisa ukuqina okukhulu.
•Ingqwalasela yoLwakhiwo: Ukuveliswa kwezixhobo, amashishini ezobuchwepheshe obuphezulu, amandla amatsha, kunye norhwebo lwe-e-commerce oluwela imida luyaqhubeka nokukhokela; ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwempahla ngaphandle okuphakathi kunye nokwemali kudlula kakhulu oko kwempahla yabathengi.
•Imeko yeMarike: I-ASEAN kuqala, uMbindi Mpuma / iRashiya / iAfrika ikhula kakhulu, iYurophu kunye ne-US zibonisa ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo.
•Iinkcukacha eziphambili: Ngowama-2025, ixabiso lilonke lokuthumela ngaphandle laseTshayina lifikelele kwi-RMB 26.99 trillion, ukonyuka kwe-6.1% unyaka nonyaka; ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo ngaphandle kufikelele kwi-RMB 16.03 trillion, ukunyuka kwe-9.2%, okubangela i-59.4% yazo zonke izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.
•Iimpawu zeLogistics: Umthamo wokuhambisa uphantsi ngaphambi kweholide, ubuyela esimeni emva koko; ukuguquguquka kweendlela zaseAsia-Yurophu/Mediterranean, amaxesha okuthutha azinzileyo ukuya eMzantsi-mpuma Asia/Middle East.
II. Iindidi eziphambili zeQ1 lika-2026 zesiqalo esiqinileyo
1. "IiNqwelo-mafutha Ezintsha Ezintathu": Injini Ephambili Yonyaka, Ukukhula Okuphezulu Okuzinzileyo kwiQ1
Izithuthi zombane (ii-EV), iibhetri ze-lithium, kunye nezinto ze-photovoltaic (PV) zihlala zizezona zinto zinamandla ekukhuleni kweempahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Ukuhlaziywa kwakhona emva kweeholide kwamanye amazwe, kunye nemfuno enzulu yemigaqo-nkqubo kunye neziseko zophuhliso.
Idatha ephambili:
• Isikali sipheleleyo sokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-"New Three" ngo-2025 sisondeleI-RMB 1.3 trillion, aUkwanda ngokuphindwe ka-3.5 kwiminyaka emi-5phezulu27.1%unyaka nonyaka.
•Izithuthi Ezintsha Zamandla: Kufikelelwe kwamanye amazweIiyunithi ezizigidi eziyi-2.315kwiinyanga ezili-11 zokuqala zowama-2025,+102.9%unyaka nonyaka; ixabiso eliphakathi leyunithiIidola ezingama-20,000–30,000Ixabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle lenyanga enye kaDisemba+71.7%unyaka nonyaka.
•Iibhetri zeLithiumIxabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle lika-2025RMB 570.86 yezigidigidi,+24.4%unyaka nonyaka; Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngoJan-SepIibhiliyoni ezingama-55.38 zeerandi,+26.8%unyaka nonyaka.
•IifotovoltaicsUkuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kudlulileRMB 200 yezigidigidiiminyaka emi-4 ilandelelana; imfuno ebanzi yokugcina izitishi zamandla zaphesheya kwikota yoku-1.
IiMarike eziphambili: I-ASEAN, uMbindi Mpuma, iRashiya, uMntla Afrika, uMzantsi Melika
Iingongoma eziphambili zeLogistics:
•Ii-NEV: Iinqanawa zeRo-Ro / iirakhi ezisicaba, ukuvakaliswa kweempahla eziyingozi, iilayisenisi zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, ukususwa kwerhafu yendawo oya kuyo
•Iibhetri zeLithium: UN38.3, isatifikethi seempahla eziyingozi, ukupakishwa kobungakanani obulinganiselweyo, indawo ephambili yomgca enikezelweyo
•Iifotovoltaics: Umthwalo opheleleyo wesikhongozeli ngokuyintloko, qwalasela iwindow yohlengahlengiso lwesakhiwo serhafu yerhafu ye-VAT
Uqikelelo lweQ1Ukukhula konyaka nonyaka kugcinwe kwi25%–40%indawo encinci yesikhongozeli ibonisaukufumana indawo ngaphambi kweholide.
2. I-Electronics kunye ne-ICT: I-AI-Driven, i-Strong Semiconductor Rebound (i-Clear High Growth)
Iqhutywa ziiseva ze-AI, amaziko edatha, kunye nokuzaliswa kwakhona kwezinto ze-elektroniki zabathengi,iisekethe ezidityanisiweyo, iikhompyutha, izixhobo zonxibelelwano, kunye neephaneli zokubonisabafumana ukubuyela umva okunamandla.
Idatha ephambili:
• Ixabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle leesekethe ezidibeneyo zikaDisemba 2025+47.7%unyaka nonyaka,idlula iifowuni eziphathwayo njengeyona mveliso inkulu yokuthumela ngaphandle.
• Amanqanaba okukhula kwenyanga enye kwiikhompyutha kunye nezixhobo zonxibelelwano ezingenazingcingo afikelelekile89.2%kwaye66.9%ngokulandelelana; ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweefowuni eziphathwayo+41.2%.
• Ukungeniswa kwezixhobo ezinxulumene ne-AI eMelika kukhule48.3%–89.2%, nto leyo eqhuba ukukhula okuphezulu kwemveliso ye-ICT ethunyelwa ngaphandle eTshayina.
IiMarike eziphambili: i-USA, iYurophu, uMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia, iJapan, uMzantsi Korea
Iingongoma eziphambili zeLogistics: Impahla enexabiso eliphezulu ikhetha ukuthutha ngenqwelomoya/iinqanawa ezikhawulezayo, ulawulo lobushushu kunye nokufuma, ukulandelela okupheleleyo, isiqinisekiso somonakalo ophantsi.
Uqikelelo lweQ1: Ixesha eliphakamileyo lokuthunyelwa kwezinto ze-elektroniki; amaxabiso okuthutha ngenqwelo moya anyuka rhoqo ngoFebruwari-Matshi; izinga lokukhula30%+.
3. Oomatshini kunye noKwakha iinqanawa: Ukugcinwa kwemisebenzi okuqinileyo, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okunzima kakhulu
Oomatshini ngokubanzi, iimoto, izixhobo zasekhaya, kunye nokwakhiwa kweenqanawabazuze ekuvuselelekeni kwemizi-mveliso kwihlabathi liphela kunye nokukhula okuphezulu kokusilela kwee-odolo, kunye nokuhanjiswa okugxininisiweyo kwikota yoku-1.
Idatha ephambili:
• Kufikelelwe ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweemveliso zoomatshini nezombane ngo-2025I-RMB 12.07 trillionphezulu9.6%, ukubala60.5%iyonke impahla ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
• Iimpahla ezinkulu ezifanaiinqanawa, iijenereyitha, iimpompo, iicompressorigalelo leepesenti eziyi-0.4–1 kukukhula okupheleleyo kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
Iindidi eziphambili: Iimpompo, iicompressor, iijenereyitha, ii-air conditioner zasekhaya, oomatshini bokuhlamba impahla, iifriji zorhwebo, iinqanawa zeekhonteyina/ii-tanker
IiMarike eziphambili: I-ASEAN, uMbindi Mpuma, iAfrika, uMzantsi Melika, iYurophu
Iingongoma eziphambili zeLogistics: Ukuqinisa imithwalo emikhulu, iirakhi ezithe tyaba / iitopu ezivulekileyo, ukususwa kwempahla okuhlanganisiweyo kunye nokuthutha iilori.
Uqikelelo lweQ1: Ukuqiniseka okuphezulu, izivumelwano ezininzi zexesha elide; izinga lokukhula8%–12%, ifanelekile ekucwangcisweni kwendawo ixesha elide.
4. Izinto Ezibalulekileyo Zorhwebo Lwe-E-Commerce Olunqamlezileyo: Ukuqaliswa Kwemveliso Entsha YaseNtlakohlaza + Ukusetyenziswa Kweeholide, Ukukhula Okukhulu Kwee-odolo Ezincinci, Ezijikelezayo Ngokukhawuleza
Ukuqaliswa kwemveliso entsha yasentwasahlobo phesheya kwezilwandle, ixesha lokubuyela esikolweni, ukuhlaziywa kwekhaya, kunye nemisebenzi yangaphandle, kudityaniswe nokukhula okuphezulu kwezorhwebo lwe-elektroniki kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia, eRashiya, nakuMbindi Mpuma —izinto ezincinci ezikhanyayo, iimpahla zabathengi ezihamba ngokukhawuleza, iimveliso zasekhaya, kunye nezixhobo ezincincisiyaqhubeka nokubona inqwaba yeenkqubo ezikhawulezayo.
Idatha ephambili:
• Umlinganiselo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-intanethi eTshayina ulindeleke ukuba ufikeleleI-RMB 3.2 trillionngo-2026, echaza28%yexabiso lilonke lorhwebo lwangaphandle oluthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
• Imakethi ye-e-commerce yaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia iza kudlulaIidola ezili-150 zeerandingo-2026, kunye nokukhula konyaka kwe15%Ukukhula korhwebo lwe-elektroniki e-Indonesia22%, Indiya17.6%.
• Iiakhawunti ze-e-commerce ze-B2B eziwela imida phantse70%, kunye nokukhula okuphezulu kakhulu kune-B2C; Umthamo wemithwalo yeQ1+30%+inyanga nenyanga.
Iindidi eziPhambiliIzinto ezifunekayo zemihla ngemihla zekhaya, izinto zokugcina izinto, izixhobo ezincinci, izinto zasekhitshini, ukuzonwabisa ngaphandle, izixhobo zemidlalo, iimpahla zasentwasahlobo, izinto zezilwanyana zasekhaya, izixhobo ze-3C
IiMarike eziphambili: Mzantsi-mpuma weAsia (iTikTok Shop), eRashiya, eMbindi Mpuma, urhwebo lwe-e-commerce lwasekuhlaleni
Iingongoma eziphambili zeLogistics: Indawo yokugcina impahla phesheya kweelwandle, iipasela ezincinci ezinikezelweyo, inkonzo ye-DDP, amaxesha okuhamba azinzileyo, ilahleko ephantsi yokubuya.
Uqikelelo lweQ1Umthamo wemithwalo ye-e-commerce+30%+inyanga nenyanga; amaxabiso eemayile zokugqibela anyuka ngokulinganisela.
5. Izinto Ezibalulekileyo Zasebusika kunye Neempahla Zabathengi Ezihamba Ngokukhawuleza: I-Russia / I-Middle East / I-Europe Replenishment Window
UJanuwari ukuya kuMatshi kusesexesha lokufudumeza kuMntla weHlabathi.izixhobo zokufudumeza, amalaphu afudumeleyo asekhaya, impahla etyebileyo, kunye nezixhobo ezincinciisasebenza ngamandla eRashiya, eMpuma Yurophu, nakwiAsia Ephakathi.
Idatha ephambili:
• Ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eRashiya naseAsia Ephakathi kudlule15%+kwiikota ezininzi ezilandelelanayo; imfuno engqongqo yezixhobo zokufudumeza, iingubo zombane, iijakethi ezingaphantsi.
• Ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwi-ASEAN ngo-202511.1%, Ilatin America9.8%, eAfrika13.7%ukuqina okuqinileyo kweempahla zabathengi kwiimarike ezisakhulayo.
Iindidi eziphambili: Izifudumezi zombane, iingubo zombane, iijakethi ezingaphantsi, iingubo, izixhobo ezincinci ezisemgangathweni waseYurophu
Iimfuno eziphambili: Iziqinisekiso ezipheleleyo (CE/EAC/GOST), ukulungiswa kwevolthi, ukupakishwa okuhambelanayo
Iingongoma eziphambili zeLogistics: Oololiwe baseTshayina naseRussia, imizila yeenqwelo moya ekhawulezayo, amaxesha okuhamba ngezibuko zomhlaba azinzileyo.
Uqikelelo lweQ1: Ukuphinda kuzaliswe izinto ezixineneyo kwisithuba senyanga emva kweholide; iimpahla ezingenaso isiqinisekiso esifanelekileyo zisengozini yokwaliwa.
6. Iimveliso zezolimo kunye nokutya okulungisiweyo: Ukhathalelo lwempilo, olulula, nokukhula okuphezulu e-ASEAN / eMntla Melika
Ukutya okulungisiweyo, iiproteni ezisekelwe kwizityalo, iimveliso zasemanzini, iti, kunye neemveliso zezolimo ezikhethekileyoxhamla kwiindlela zokutya okunempilo kunye neemfuno zabathengi baseTshayina bamanye amazwe. Unxibelelwano olubandayo kunye nokuthobela imithetho zezona zinto ziphambili.
Idatha ephambili:
• Ukuthunyelwa kwemveliso yezolimo kwamanye amazwe kugcina ukukhula okuzinzileyo5%–8%imfuno yesikhongozeli sekhonkco elibandayo+ 12%unyaka nonyaka.
• Kulindeleke ukuba imakethi yezilwanyana zasekhaya yehlabathi isondeleIidola ezingama-500 zeerandingo-2026, kunye nokukhula konyaka kwe6%–8%ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemveliso yezilwanyana zasekhaya kuyanda ngaxeshanye.
Iindidi eziphambili: Iimveliso zesoya, iimveliso zasemanzini, izitya ezilungisiweyo, iti, amantongomane, izinongo
IiMarike eziphambili: I-ASEAN, i-USA, iKhanada, iOstreliya, iYurophu
Iingongoma eziphambili zeLogistics: Izikhongozeli zetyathanga elibandayo, ukulandeleka kolawulo lobushushu, ukuhlolwa kweempahla kunye nokufakwa kwerhafu, ukuthotyelwa kweelebheli.
Uqikelelo lweQ1: Ukukhula okuzinzileyo, amazinga aphezulu okuthenga kwakhona, afanelekileyo ekuthunyelweni okuzinzileyo kwexesha elide.
III. Iimarike eziphambili zekota yokuqala ka-2026 kunye namathuba eendlela
1. I-ASEAN (Iqabane Elikhulu Lorhwebo)
• Izinga lokukhula eliqikelelweyo le9.4%ngo-2026.
• Amaxesha okuhamba akhawulezayo, iindleko eziphantsi, nomthamo wemithwalo ozinzileyo.
• Ukuthunyelwa okuxineneyo kweiimpahla zasekhaya, i-3C, oomatshini, iimpahla zorhwebo lwe-elektroniki.
Iingenelo:I-Sea-Rail Express, Uthutho lweMinyaka emininzi emhlabeni.
2. IRashiya kunye neAsia Ephakathi
• Ukwanda kwemfuno yeizinto zokufudumeza, izixhobo, izinto zabathengi ezihamba ngokukhawuleza.
• Izinga lokukhula15%+.
• Ngokuyintlokooololiwe, uthutho lweenqwelo-moya, uthutho lomhlaba.
• Okuphambili: Ukuthobela imithetho kunye nesiqinisekiso.
3. UMbindi Mpuma
• Imfuno enamandla yeamandla amatsha, iziseko zophuhliso, izixhobo, izixhobo ze-elektroniki.
• Izinga lokukhula10%–15%.
•Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla elwandle ngqo + indawo yokugcina impahla phesheyaukuze kubekho ukhuphiswano olukhulu.
4. IYurophu (Iindlela zeMeditera / Asia-Europe)
• Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eYurophu kunyuke8.1%kwiinyanga ezili-11 zokuqala zika-2025; ukuvuselelwa kuyaqhubeka ngo-2026.
• Iindidi eziphambili:Amandla amatsha, izixhobo ze-elektroniki, oomatshini.
• Qaphela ukuguquguquka kwendlela kunye neentlawulo ezongezelelweyo;bhukisha indawo kwangethuba.
5. IAfrika kunye neLatin America
• Ukukhula okuphezulu kwiiimoto, oomatshini, izixhobo, izixhobo zokwakha.
• Ukukhula kweAfrika13.7%, Ilatin America9.8%.
• NgokuyintlokoI-FCL, ukususwa kwerhafu okuntsonkothileyo.
• Cebisaizisombululo zezothutho eziya kwindawo enye.
6. I-United States
• Ukubuyela esimeni esisezantsi kodwa ngokwesakhiwo phantsi koxinzelelo.
• Izinga lokukhula eliqikelelweyo malunga-5%ngo-2026.
• Jongisisa iiimveliso ezinexabiso eliphezulu, eziqwalasela ukuthobela imithetho.
• Izinto eziza kuqala kwi-logistics:Iinqanawa ezikhawulezayo, ulawulo lobushushu, ukulandeleka okuphezulu.
IV. Izikhumbuzo ezibalulekileyo zeLogistics kunye neThumelo kwiQ1 lika-2026 (ezibalulekileyo kwiingcali zorhwebo lwangaphandle)
1. Isingqisho seeholide zoMnyhadala waseNtwasahlobo
• Iifektri zivaliwe phakathi kuFebruwari, ziyaqhubeka kwakhona ekupheleni kukaFebruwari.
• Imizila yokuthumela impahla, amazibuko, irhafu ejikeleziswayo.
•Isiqingatha sokuqala sikaFebruwari sisithuba sokugqibela sokuthunyelwa kwempahla ngokudibeneyo.
2. Indawo kunye namaxabiso
• Ngaphambi kweholide: Indawo encinci kwiindlela zase-Southeast Asia / Middle East.
• Emva kweeholide: Ukuchacha ngokupheleleyo ngoMatshi.
•Beka phambili indawo yokukhusela izinto ezintsha ezintathu / izixhobo ze-elektroniki ezinexabiso eliphezulu.
3. Imigca ebomvu yokuthobela imithetho
•Iibhetri zeLithium / iiNEV: Ukupakishwa kweempahla eziyingozi, inombolo ye-UN, isibhengezo esihambelanayo — kuphephe ukugcinwa kweekhonteyina kunye nezohlwayo.
•Iimpahla zorhwebo lwe-elektroniki: Iimpawu zorhwebo zangaphambi kokuhlolwa, ukwaphulwa komthetho, iziqinisekiso, iimfuno zerhafu yendawo oya kuyo.
4. Icebo Elingacacanga
•Iindidi ezitshintsha kakhulu: Gcina iivenkile zaphesheya kwezilwandle ngaphambi kweholide, zizisa ngqo emva kweholide.
•Imithwalo emikhulu / Iikhontrakthi zexesha elide: Indawo yokubhukaIintsuku ezili-10–15 kwangaphambili, thintela ukuxinana ngosuku lokuqala lokubuyela emsebenzini.
Isishwankathelo se-V.: Ukuqala Okuqinileyo kuka-2026 — Gxila kwiMigca emi-3 ephambili
1. Amacandelo ajolise ekukhuleni okuphezulu: Ezintsha Ezintathu, i-ICT ye-elektroniki, oomatshini kunye nokwakha iinqanawa (Uqiniseko oluphezulu)
2. IiMarike eziHlolwayo eziJongayo: I-ASEAN, iRashiya, uMbindi Mpuma, iAfrika (Ukukhula Okukhawulezayo)
3. Sebenzisa iingenelo zeLogistics: Ukukhusela indawo ngaphambi kweeholide, ukubeka phambili ukuthobela imithetho, ukubeka iindawo zokugcina impahla phesheya kolwandle, ukuvumela ukubonakala ukusuka ekuqaleni ukuya ekupheleni
Unyaka weHashe ufikile. Ukukhetha iindidi zemveliso ezifanelekileyo = isiqingatha sedabi eliphumeleleyo. Ukukhetha iqabane elifanelekileyo lezothutho = uhambo olungenaxhala.
Ixesha leposi: Feb-28-2026